Eight Predictions for 2010
We’ve just put the finishing touches on our predictions for next year. The full set is available to our clients here, but I thought I’d share my favourite eight predictions in a blog posting.
Here’s what we think will the next 12 months (and more) will bring the mobile industry.
Motorola will be acquired by Google. Although this is an unlikely scenario, it would deliver Google a portfolio of Android-powered devices. We would expect Motorola’s Devices headquarters to shift to Mountain View in California.
Apple will make major moves into mapping, location and augmented reality. Such moves would pitch Apple into direct competition with Google and Nokia. They would also end Apple’s reliance on Google for mapping services.
Amazon will make a larger play in mobile in 2010. It already sells phones, accessories, netbooks and music, and has a well-established and trusted payment system. The Kindle device and its connectivity agreement with AT&T are expanding worldwide. Amazon will exploit its strength in cloud services, either by offering recommendations as a cloud service to software stores, or by setting up a world-scale application store.
Most application stores will not be profitable during 2010. Like store owners, developers will be frustrated by the gap between the promise of easy income and the reality of needing careful marketing to make consumers aware of applications.
At least one European country will introduce a mobile telecom tax in 2010. Governments are looking to bridge national budget gaps, and mobile network operators’ substantial revenues will be an attractive target.
Some countries will see a fall in subscriber numbers. As prepaid users switch to contracts they will discard their two or three old prepaid SIMs. In high-penetration markets such as Italy we expect leading operators to report a decline in customers.
At least two major European operators will stop subsidising phones in 2010. They will switch to a SIM-only strategy, and offer nothing but SIM-only contracts to new customers and to people renewing or upgrading contracts.
Microsoft will port Windows 7 to the ARM architecture. The move will be a hedge against burgeoning growth in sub-netbook mobile computing, but Microsoft will not acknowledge the port before the end of 2010. Any ARM products running Windows 7 would not be available until 2011.
Feel free to tell us if you agree or if you think we’re wrong.
Tags: Amazon, apple, ARM, Google, Microsoft, Mobile, motorola, SIM-only
Posted By Shaun Collins On December 11th, 2009
December 11th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
> Motorola will be acquired by Google
I still can’t understand why Google would want to make devices. If they do that then it’s highly unlikely that any other OEM would continue to use Android. And what Google really care about is having Android on as many phones as possible; owning the phone doesn’t help them much after that. So it just doesn’t add up.
One issue is that today there’s no-one to take Android into really top-end iPhone-competing devices. So making really high-end devices might make sense and wouldn’t really compete with the existing Android OEMs (though it would make them super nervous). But buying Moto doesn’t fit in to that scenario.
I’m sure I’ll be proved wrong in 2010, but I don’t understand why.
December 14th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
Maybe I misinterpret what you mean by telecom tax, but Italy had a tax on mobile phone contracts for 10+ years
December 15th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Andrea: the prediction relates to the introduction of a new tax, in addition to the existing levies across Europe. Better wording would have been “At least one more European country will introduce a new mobile telecom tax…” Apologies for any confusion.
December 15th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
AE, why not? If Google bought Moto it would control hardware and software platforms. Surely a practical way to ensure your devices – with your valuable brand all over them – deliver the desired user experience. Rather like Apple in fact, who seem to be doing pretty well right now with a similar approach. This would alo set a benchmark of non-fragmented Google-phones which any other OEM would need to meet if it wants to sell Android devices.
December 18th, 2009 at 3:38 pm
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January 22nd, 2010 at 3:27 am
I also can’t understand why Google got into selling their own mobile phone, and didn’t see the ramifications in advance.
Sure, it wanted a phone to showcase their Android OS that was good enough to compete with iPhone. But it could have done that without getting involved in retail as well.
As to Motorola being acquired by Google, and people agreeing it would be a good thing for google … well let’s just say I think it would be like what would have happened if Microsoft sold PC’s from day one instead of just the operating system.
February 3rd, 2010 at 11:26 am
Laptops will change the world when they are accessible to everyone financially. Think of every man and women, having a personal laptop.