London, 10 October 2023: CCS Insight has produced its latest set of 85 predictions that share its expectations for the technology landscape in 2024 and beyond. This year the research team has focused on personalised experiences, artificial intelligence (AI) and sustainability as well as collaborative convergence and the impact of regulation. Focus areas include key technologies such as machine learning, cloud computing and extended reality as well as a deep focus on the circular economy, advances in infrastructure, the changing workplace, connected devices and virtual worlds. The online event will also include interviews with leading executives from EE, Qualcomm and Samsung UK.
Below is a selection of the predictions that are being shared as part of the company’s one-hour sessions being broadcast online on 10 to 12 October.
- Generative AI has a cold shower in 2024 as the reality of cost, risk and complexity replaces the hype of 2023. The hype of 2023 has ignored several obstacles that will slow progress in the short term. The cost of deployment is a prohibitive factor for many organizations and developers. Additionally, future regulation and the social and commercial risks of deploying generative AI in certain scenarios result in a period of evaluation prior to roll-out.
- By the end of 2023, more than half of iPhones in use are second-hand devices. Pre-owned devices as well as hand-me-downs make up more than 50% of the 1.3 billion iPhones in use by the end of 2023. From 2024, the average life of an iPhone is eight years. In contrast, used Android smartphones represent less than 25% of Android’s installed base.
- Instagram adds an “unfiltered” feed by 2024. Concerns about the ability of AI to create believable images sees Instagram offer a space for unedited photographs. Images are taken and uploaded without any chance for user editing, and watermarked as #unfiltered. The move finds favour among those increasingly disillusioned by non-authentic imagery.
- In 2024, e& buys Vodafone’s majority stake in Vodacom. The move enables e& — formerly known as Etisalat — to bolster its presence in Africa. For Vodafone, the sale enables it to reduce a large chunk of debt as it looks to slim down and refocus under new CEO Margherita Della Valle.
- EU legislation is delayed and redrawn multiple times owing to the speed of AI advancement. The EU is in the process of regulating AI with the AI Act. However, the speed at which AI is advancing makes the construction of a robust and workable regulatory framework extremely difficult. There are differences of opinion between the US, EU and market participants, with Europe taking a far more structured and robust approach to regulation. Legislation is not finalized until late 2024, leaving the industry to take the initial steps at self-regulation.
- The deteriorating health of the Android ecosystem sees Google doubling down on its own hardware. With little evidence to suggest a slowdown in iOS growth at the expense of Android, Google responds by making bigger investments in its own hardware, software and distribution, including second-hand products. The move risks disillusionment among other Android manufacturers, but Google decides it needs to control its own destiny.
- In 2024, Apple moves to take greater control of the second-hand iPhone market. The popularity of refurbished iPhones starts to dent sales of new models. To address this, Apple takes more direct control of the secondary market in Europe and the US. It introduces a “Verified” grading system to give consumers and distributors confidence in the devices they buy and the prices they pay.
- HTC exits the virtual reality market by 2026. HTC has struggled to compete with rivals largely because of its refusal to engage in aggressive pricing strategies. Although it is buoyed slightly by growth in the category in the coming years, by 2026 it makes the decision to shut down its work in virtual reality and sell its intellectual property to other players.
- 15% of smartphone users have satellite-enabled devices by 2027. As major players like Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and Samsung collaborate with satellite providers such as Globalstar, Iridium and Inmarsat, satellite connectivity becomes an essential feature, enabling SOS capabilities and two-way messaging, and contributing to the wider adoption of satellite-enabled smartphones.
- By 2030, AI enables 50% of companies in a European country to trial a four-day working week. As workplace tools are enhanced by generative AI in a bid to boost productivity, firms use this technology in a more considered way to offer many staff to spend their time more effectively. The widespread adoption of AI leads to employers in one nation championing a shorter working week.
- Self-healing displays appear on smartphones and other consumer electronics by 2028. The first self-healing displays emerge capable of repairing minor scratches and dents on their own. This is enabled by using a special material in the display, which when exposed to air reacts and forms a new layer of material to fill an imperfection.
- By 2025, a connectivity performance rating is mandated as part of the sale of any property in a major European market. The rating includes an assessment of indoor and outdoor mobile coverage by each network operator and the current and expected status of full-fibre broadband. Its introduction comes as access to high-quality connectivity has a growing impact on property prices.
- AI oversight committees become commonplace in large organizations by 2024. Companies establish diverse oversight committees composed of AI ethics experts, legal advisors, data scientists and representatives to review applications of AI in the business, set guidelines, conduct audits and address ethical and legal concerns.
- A wave of AI-generated web articles with minimal scrutiny prompts a search engine to add content health warnings to its results. The proliferation of generative AI creates a flood of AI-written spam articles. A major search engine is forced to start offering content warnings on individual search results that it believes may have been AI-generated.
The Predictions event can be accessed by visiting: https://www.ccsinsight.com/predictions at 10.00 or 17.00 BST on the following days:
- Tuesday 18 October: Personalised Experiences — analysts outline advances in smart home tech, connected devices and virtual and augmented reality. Additionally they assess how new digital environments will change the role technology plays in people’s daily lives and well-being.
- Wednesday 19 October: Intelligence, Sustainability and Connectivity — we tackle the rise of artificial intelligence as our analysts present and debate its growing role in society. We also focus on the rapid growth of the second-hand device market, driven by the global environmental agenda, and the arrival of satellite-based mobile communications to support 5G services.
- Thursday 20 October: Collaborative Convergence — the event delves into the powerful combination of innovations such as cloud computing, AI, virtualization, private mobile networks and more. As these trends increasingly come together, we look at how they will transform industries, enterprises and workplaces and create opportunities for partnerships and new ecosystems.
The full list of 85 predictions and interviews with the relevant analysts are available on request.
Notes to editors
CCS Insight is a leading provider of research on technology markets. Each year it produces predictions of what the coming years will have in store for technology and its impact on the world. In a series of video broadcasts its analysts explain the thinking behind these predictions and forecasts.
About CCS Insight
CCS Insight is a global analyst company focussing on current and future trends in technology. It provides comprehensive services that are tailored to meet the needs of individual clients, helping them make sense of the connected world. Follow @CCSInsight on X (Twitter) or learn more at www.ccsinsight.com.
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