Networks' Ambitions to Launch 5G Early Raise Global Forecast


New CCS Insight forecast predicts 5G connections will reach 340 million in 2021

European providers show ambition, but the region is still adrift

China is set to lead in 5G adoption, reaching 40 million connections in 2020

5G is in focus for smartphone makers given the sluggish state of the device market


London, 11 September 2018: Tech analyst firm CCS Insight has raised its near-term expectations for 5G connections after a flurry of operators flaunted their ambitions to bring services to market more quickly than previously stated.

According to the forecast, 5G connections will reach 340 million in 2021, before surpassing 1 billion in the first half of 2023. By 2025, the total is expected to hit 2.7 billion, equivalent to more than one connection in every five in the world.

"The intentions of major US carriers to launch 5G in late 2018 have been clear for a while. But recently we've seen greater urgency to deploy networks from providers in Europe, the Middle East and China," said Kester Mann, principal analyst at CCS Insight. "While Europe may still be around a year adrift of the leading markets in 5G, some regional operators are clearly determined to launch commercial services as soon as next year".

Last week, Telia launched a pre-commercial 5G network in Helsinki in preparation for a full commercial offering in 2019. The Nordic provider has a pedigree in early launches of mobile technology, having claimed to be "first in the world" to launch commercial 4G, in late 2009.

Recent bullish statements from other networks including Telecom Italia, BT, Swisscom and Telenor point to 5G becoming a commercial reality in Europe sooner than previously assumed. Indeed, Finnish operator Elisa has gone one step further, claiming to have already launched a commercial network, albeit without supporting devices.

These ambitions contrast with the more cautious approach of major groups like Vodafone, Orange, Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica, which have only committed to commercial 5G services in 2020. "Nevertheless, once networks are launched, the motivation to bring users onto them will be huge", commented Mann. CCS Insight's 5G forecast for Western Europe sees over 20 million 5G connections at the end of 2020, growing fivefold to more than 100 million two years later.

Another region with a more positive near-term outlook is the Middle East, after a quartet of regional providers made bold claims of early network deployments within days of each other in May 2018. Although their assertions are likely to have been strongly motivated by local one-upmanship, they serve to illustrate more bullish expectations for the region than previously assumed.

China remains the biggest source globally of 5G adoption by far, and several factors have prompted CCS Insight to raise its expectations still further.

Foremost was an indication that the country's largest operator, China Mobile, may launch ahead of previous expectations, in 2019. Additionally, local infrastructure suppliers Huawei and ZTE may sharpen their focus on the domestic market following recent geopolitical tension that has led to more challenging environments in several markets, including the US and Australia. And a potential merger of China Telecom and China Unicom has been rumoured to be driven by a desire to achieve global 5G supremacy.

We expect China to overtake the US to become the biggest 5G market in 2020, with 40 million connections. By 2025, connections in China will surpass 1 billion, accounting for nearly four connections in every ten worldwide.

In the US, carriers are gearing up to launch the first commercial 5G networks, possibly as soon as this month. The initial focus will be on fixed wireless technology; however, while this will enable early deployment in the absence of supporting smartphones, CCS Insight sees it as only a niche opportunity. Even in the long term, it will represent just 1 percent of all 5G connections worldwide by 2025.

All these early network launches wouldn't allow users to move to 5G connections without the efforts of smartphone makers and chipset suppliers to deliver the first 5G-enabled mobile phones as soon as Spring 2019. The very first handsets will have room for improvement, but by the end of 2019, many major flagship smartphones will support the new technology. "A stagnant device market in 2018, especially in affluent countries, means that Android smartphone makers will jump at the opportunity to offer some innovation in the hope of tempting people to replace their phone next year", commented Marina Koytcheva, vice president of forecasting at CCS Insight.

The iPhone is unlikely to be among the first 5G phones in 2019. But despite Apple's possible late arrival, almost 60 million 5G-enabled smartphones are forecast to be sold in 2019, growing to over half a billion in 2021.

The chart below provides a summary of CCS Insight's 5G forecast for mobile connections worldwide.

Click on the image above for a larger version.

More details of CCS Insight's 5G research service can be found here.

Notes to editors

CCS Insight is a leading provider of technology research. This forecast is part of a broader suite of 5G research including quarterly market analysis, updates on the latest market-related developments and thought-provoking pieces about the future of 5G and telecom operator strategies.

About CCS Insight

CCS Insight is a global analyst company focussing on current and future trends in technology. It provides comprehensive services that are tailored to meet the needs of individual clients, helping them make sense of the connected world. Follow @CCSInsight on Twitter or learn more at www.ccsinsight.com.

For further information contact:
Hollie Bridgland
Harvard PR
Tel: +44 20 7861 2842
E-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Hot News

Team Tweets

CCS Insight
Omron's HeartGuide is the latest device to blur the line between wearables and healthcare devices:… https://t.co/3LWlGszMUL
Follow CCS Insight
Shaun Collins
RT @MarinaKoytcheva: Worth watching this session on the outlook for the digital economy at #WEF19 It may not be a humble thing to say, but…
Follow Shaun
Ben Wood
Anyone aware of any stats from insurance companies (or elsewhere) on the incidence and cost of damage caused by wat… https://t.co/oSHDofLM3q
Follow Ben
Martin Garner
Very useful briefing just now from brett Francis @AWS on the #IoT announcements from @AWSreInvent . Good to see how… https://t.co/WoG7cFA84J
Follow Martin
Geoff Blaber
The only thing more incredible than the 10,000 employees Amazon has dedicated to Alexa is the speed at which it’s g… https://t.co/01bxzJ4w2m
Follow Geoff
Marina Koytcheva
Worth watching this session on the outlook for the digital economy at #WEF19 It may not be a humble thing to say, b… https://t.co/qp2ZSaKDuP
Follow Marina
Nicholas McQuire
Major steps in the vital march towards #mobileEdge & #CloudComputing. An important partnership from #IBM &… https://t.co/UzmddHXwSG
Follow Nicholas
Kester Mann
RT @MarinaKoytcheva: Worth watching this session on the outlook for the digital economy at #WEF19 It may not be a humble thing to say, but…
Follow Kester
Angela Ashenden
.@slackhq has a new Chief Product Officer, Tamar Yehoshua (ex-Google) to go with its new logo: “A heartfelt thank y… https://t.co/gQVxmYpqTZ
Follow Angela
George Jijiashvili
@StewartMitchell Sure - feel free to DM me if easier.
Follow George
Katie Taylor
The lifesaving food 90% aren’t eating enough of: how more fibre could prevent disease-related deaths https://t.co/N1P9QfNBr8
Follow Katie

Recent Blog Posts

Blog Post
The Right Cuff Omron's HeartGuide Tries to Steal a March on the Apple Watch... Read more
Blog Post
Microsoft Links Up with Walgreens Changes Loom over US Healthcare Market Last Tuesday, Micros... Read more
Blog Post
Fossil and Google Sign Licensing Deal Fossil to License "Advanced" Smartwatch Tech to Google Goog... Read more
More blog

Latest Company News

Blog Post
Virtual Reality Device Market Declines in 2018 But Outlook Remains Positive Research firm CCS Insight forecasts 8 million virtual realit... Read more
More news

CCS Insight on

Watch the CCS Insight channel on YouTube. > Follow us now