A recent Spotlight report from CCS Insight shines a light on the vast potential of satellite connectivity to the telecom sector. It explores a resurgent technology ready to help connect more people and things, offering new revenue and cost-saving opportunities, as well as a solution to narrow the digital divide.
The report assesses three leading uses of direct-to-device satellite services, fixed satellite broadband and IoT, which together are projected to contribute more than $30 billion in revenue for the industry by 2028. The analysis homes in on the fast-growing direct-to-device opportunity, an area of much interest thanks to recent momentum in deploying satellites in low Earth orbit; here, we expect close to a billion connections by 2028, representing two-thirds of the projected total revenue figure.
North America is leading the charge, reflecting a mature and affluent market, and one with a vast geography including many places with little habitation. Here, carriers are already gearing up to offer consumer satellite services to unmodified smartphones as their battle for network supremacy ramps up to another level. A flurry of activity in this market began with the flagship industry partnership between T-Mobile and Starlink in 2022, spurring rivals AT&T and Verizon to accelerate plans of their own.
The US is set to dominate take-up of satellite-based person-to-person messaging throughout our forecast period. The industry at large will be watching closely to see how carriers position the service, how the technology performs and what impact it has on customers.
Based on announced partnerships between carriers and constellations in North America, and assuming a preferred approach to bundle satellite connectivity into existing tariffs, CCS Insight forecasts that the region’s providers will offer an emergency messaging service over satellite on unmodified devices to almost 400 million people by 2028, more than twice as many as in any other world region. On the same basis, North America will also set the pace in person-to-person, or SMS, messaging over satellite, with more than 150 million subscribers by this time.
In addition to the opportunity with unmodified smartphones, native support for satellite in mobile phones is also gathering pace. We expect rapid growth in the adoption of satellite-enabled smartphones, which will surge in number from close to 200 million in the market today to more than 900 million by 2028.
The unmodified smartphone market is dominated by Apple, which grabbed industry headlines with the introduction of an emergency SOS through a satellite service on the iPhone 14 in 2022. The subsequent arrival of iOS 18 heralded more-advanced services, like two-way messaging. From 2026, it is expected that Samsung will represent a large portion of the modified smartphone market, and that other Android brands will start to achieve a meaningful share come the end of the forecast period.
The Spotlight report also assesses the strong potential for operators’ satellite services in regions such as Africa, Australia and India, where the technology offers a pathway to connecting millions of people unable to get online or who regularly encounter network black spots. However, regulation, cost and technical implementation present significant challenges to near-term adoption.
CCS Insight notes pockets of satellite activity in Europe, but concludes that the case for the region’s operators to invest in the technology is less clear-cut. This reflects the fragmented market structure as well as strong progress deploying fibre and mobile networks in smaller, more densely populated nations.
Twitter
Facebook
LinkedIn
Email