Reflections on Computex 2024

There were few surprises at Computex 2024. The agenda was set well ahead of the show, following Microsoft’s launch of Copilot+ just two weeks earlier (see here). Nonetheless, this was the most significant show in years, with clear signs that the x86’s stranglehold on the PC industry will be successfully challenged.

We’ve been here before of course. Windows on Arm has a long and misfiring history, but CCS Insight is confident that this time is different, given the current platform’s alignment with Microsoft’s efforts, its software and tooling development, which supports both native and Prism-based emulation, and its performance compared with x86 systems from Intel and AMD.

Qualcomm had nothing new to say, but following a successful Copilot+ unveiling with Microsoft, it didn’t need to. Its confidence was high, with CEO Cristiano Amon stating that Copilot+ powered by the Snapdragon X series “is the most disruptive thing in computing since Windows 95”. With an abundance of design wins from six manufacturers, attractive performance credentials and strategic support from Microsoft, it’s a fair claim — it’s set to deliver the same disruption to performance, usage and device design as Apple’s transition from Intel to its own Arm-based M-series silicon.

Indeed, Arm’s claims that it can secure 50% of the PC market in five years highlight this confidence. However, it is also frustrating that there isn’t a better alignment between Arm and Qualcomm given that Qualcomm will be behind most Arm PC sales in the near future. The legal dispute over Qualcomm’s acquisition of Nuvia and integration of its technology into Snapdragon X series chips is a cloud at a defining time for both companies. Arm’s statement also suggests that other Arm licensees will soon be challenging Qualcomm, and CCS Insight has long predicted that MediaTek will seek to address the mid-tier PC market.

Subsequently, now is an important time for Qualcomm to establish a firm footing in the PC market. In addition to looming competition from other Arm licensees, AMD and Intel presented rival platforms in the Ryzen AI 300 series and Lunar Lake at Computex. AMD’s Ryzen AI 300 series includes a neural processing unit (NPU) of over 50 trillion operations per second (TOPS), which — on paper — trumps Qualcomm’s 45 TOPS. This meets the requirement for Copilot+ and will become available from July. However, TOPS are an imperfect indicator of AI performance, and it remains to be seen how competitive AMD will be on power usage versus Qualcomm.

The same is true for Intel. Computex saw the launch of the Lunar Lake architecture, which promises big performance jumps over the current Meteor Lake — 50% more graphics performance, a 14% jump in CPU and 60% better battery-life performance. It also greatly increases the performance of its NPU to meet the Copilot+ threshold (up to 48 TOPS), but Intel presented a “system-wide” story by citing GPU TOPS of up to 67 and CPU up to 5 TOPS. This is a canny move by Intel but also underlines that TOPS is becoming increasingly irrelevant as a metric. Of greater significance will be the ability of AMD, Intel, Qualcomm and Microsoft to propel application development so a wider range of apps can make use of the horsepower.

Notably, Lunar Lake also integrates RAM directly into the chip to reduce power usage. This, coupled with a low-power island featuring two efficiency cores, is responsible for the necessarily big jump in battery life to compete against Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X series architecture. The claim of 80 different designs from 20 partners underlines Intel’s strength despite lagging in the launch of Copilot+ systems.

Computex saw a much-needed response from AMD and Intel given the coup that is Qualcomm’s exclusivity on Copilot+ until the competing AMD and Intel platforms arrive in the second half of this year. However, when exactly these new platforms can deliver the full Copilot+ experience is a moving target. Significant software development is needed to get features such as Recall working on the new silicon, which means they won’t be supported immediately at launch. AMD and Intel have responded to Qualcomm, but the San Diego challenger will maintain a first-mover advantage on Copilot+ that may last past the holidays.